A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
